Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 85106.814065 89813.484675 94517.670633 99568.841316 104835.703778 110162.170038 115952.679953
2025-01-26 78540.604053 85836.512361 93330.233033 101591.967050 110434.231398 119603.424686 129819.726286
2025-02-02 73921.412651 83046.016702 92620.273938 103393.693119 115156.732018 127588.280514 141697.266661
2025-02-09 69772.877029 80233.909388 91409.430510 104200.787426 118399.573803 133640.370174 151198.912879
2025-02-16 65762.723313 77208.811843 89633.027643 104068.458618 120324.874159 138011.068596 158651.670512
2025-02-23 62769.639382 75080.065216 88634.060285 104593.123102 122795.227149 142833.438066 166483.419044
2025-03-02 59885.285450 72884.220142 87386.745629 104673.673585 124621.499134 146819.347953 173286.996497
2025-03-09 58045.933970 71768.343914 87262.380911 105936.531280 127711.234014 152175.641572 181611.011079
2025-03-16 55356.744198 69522.157099 85706.791633 105426.549250 128656.518126 155000.951431 186977.706648
2025-03-23 54088.488647 68883.743055 85966.882642 106982.687578 131963.138638 160525.827971 195461.840405
2025-03-30 52587.074730 67888.627242 85738.062463 107901.994312 134476.477667 165101.596625 202835.700300
2025-04-06 50812.146805 66484.509919 84951.734455 108093.170397 136075.515284 168570.650387 208894.248115
2025-04-13 48913.983732 64890.593802 83911.808273 107970.555104 137313.285582 171652.892191 214571.594972
2025-04-20 48189.970422 64723.212512 84589.090143 109924.669461 141060.199614 177746.881492 223887.983394
2025-04-27 47481.838781 64538.719609 85216.911496 111799.102923 144705.465197 183731.954034 233110.649014
2025-05-04 46326.698595 63740.234691 85042.606141 112648.729275 147074.748875 188171.737052 240483.328408
2025-05-11 44770.870747 62373.735084 84107.853760 112505.625381 148184.045694 191059.149882 245965.587183
2025-05-18 43627.297242 61498.882340 83757.191826 113063.870995 150140.956015 194971.648298 252705.197623
2025-05-25 42332.973437 60383.386368 83061.008073 113149.542754 151480.024586 198109.907610 258494.613023
2025-06-01 41661.913109 60063.665541 83364.819425 114494.201124 154396.934295 203204.562187 266722.342105
2025-06-08 40211.480210 58661.873519 82228.109525 113951.194470 154892.238253 205269.231514 271183.796116
2025-06-15 39758.164250 58581.243331 82799.478048 115607.988369 158190.910331 210848.976527 280057.550293
2025-06-22 39047.768745 58127.801703 82861.314772 116586.623014 160614.027254 215334.410501 287581.792134